On February 27th 2014, Russian Armed Forces shepherds bush westfield crossed their western borders into Crimea, the southern Ukrainian peninsula. The current Russian military action in Ukraine is escalating by the day, which will have serious implications on the current and future supply of European natural gas.
Russia is deemed one of the most significant players in the global energy industry. Figures show that in 2012, Russia held the largest natural gas reserves in the world, with approximately shepherds bush westfield 18% of the world s total, placing it second on the production and consumption ladder, behind the US. Currently shepherds bush westfield Russia is the dominant supplier of natural gas to Europe, shepherds bush westfield accounting for around one third of the EU s natural gas supplies.
Russia s state-owned natural gas monopoly, Gazprom, shepherds bush westfield exported 34% of the EU s total gas consumption, which includes 58% of Ukraine s consumption. The vast volume of imported Russian natural gas has meant that Gazprom has significant power in the European market. In a time of military tension and diplomatic deadlock, Gazprom, effectively controlled by oligarchs linked to Russian shepherds bush westfield President Vladimir Putin, can disrupt supplies in order to pressure the Western-backed Ukraine into surrendering their territories to Russia. By doing so, Russia will violate Ukraine s sovereignty claims on regions such as Crimea.
Ukraine, located between Russia and the rest of Europe, contains strategically important gas pipelines that connect Russian gas to other EU countries. Approximately 66% of Europe s gas supplies from Russia run through the Ukraine, before reaching countries such as Germany, France and Italy. Gazprom has in the past, offered natural gas to Ukraine at a discounted price from the EU. The current Western-backed Ukrainian government is split in its contractual dealings with Gazprom, as Gazprom demands payment of $11.4 billion for previously delivered gas supplies and Gazprom is increasing the price it charges from the discounted price of $268 per 1000 cubic metres to $485 per 1000 cubic metres, above the EU market price of $350-400. This would put further pressure on Ukraine s deteriorating finances as it aims to diversify its sources of natural gas to other European shepherds bush westfield nations. RUSSIA
The impact of energy dependence from Europe on Russia is primarily financial; but also with Russia being exposed to reputational risk. Gas sales to Europe will remain the bulk of Gazprom s revenue, with gas to Ukraine also of high significance. Russia is highly vulnerable to perceptions of being an unreliable supplier of gas. The PR effects associated with Russian politicians and gas industry managers would be similar to the situation in 2009 where Russia was blamed for the interruption of supplies to Europe, even though the fault lay on the Ukraine side. This is likely to resurface if Ukraine retaliates by interfering with transit flows, which could potentially reduce or completely cut off the gas flow for Europe. However, Europe is making efforts to reduce shepherds bush westfield reliance by increasingly shepherds bush westfield installing special terminals that allow gas to be imported in the form of LNG from countries such as Qatar and the US.
Following the sanctions imposed on Russia, the U.S economy has evidently experienced significant impacts from the slowdown. However, the Obama administration has shown all indications that they are prepared to continue levying shepherds bush westfield sanctions on Russia, planning to increase sanctions on Russian banks, corporations and even allies. shepherds bush westfield However, such sanctions play as nothing but gratuitous propaganda.
It appears that the long-term reliance on Russian natural gas will not be altered in the foreseeable future. This issue will continue to cause problems for Europe, with an estimated cost of more than $200 billion to eliminate shepherds bush westfield the dependence. The source of disruption creating volatility for Europe shepherds bush westfield s energy supply is most likely shepherds bush westfield to be Ukraine s inability to pay gas debts. EUROPE
G7 leaders pledged to find new alternative energy sources for Europe to prevent Russia from using its natural gas and oil resources as political leverage. However, it is possible that Russia may cut off gas supplies to Ukraine, which occurred in 2006 and 2009 due to unpaid gas debts. shepherds bush westfield As a result, gas prices shot up across the EU; due to the Ukraine being a transit point for almost half of Europe s natural gas imports.
Structural changes have lessened the potential impact of volatility in supply from Russia due to the new Gazprom pipelines through Belarus and the Baltic Sea to Germany, thereby cutting the potential proportion of supply to Europe that goes in transit through Ukraine to only about 15%. However a new infrastructure project the Black Sea pipeline, is expected to begin in 2015, which could allow Europe to bypass imports from Ukraine completely. This means that the dependence on Russia will be lessened, positively impacting prices and reliability of supply in the long term.
The most realistic options available to reduce po
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